Root causes of the crisis

It is easy to blame anyone of course, when everything spectacularly failed like this case of Rohingya/Bengali fleeing en masse from their homes. Within a periods of six weeks in September to October in 2017, an estimated 400,000 refugees had crossed border into Bangladesh. What are the underlying factors that have driven the refugees to flee in such panic manner ? The specific answers are still needed for the recent influx. Although the immediate answers for recent influx are not readily available, one could still examine concurrent roots of the problem, so as to provide us the guidance for possible answers.

Underlying Political Roots: Political Forces

The Muslims of Burma by Moshe Yegar (1972)
There are three major political forces at play in Rohingya crisis. The first one is the Arakanese nationalist groups. Historically, there had been several communal conflicts between Buddhist-Arakanese and Muslim-Rohingya/Bengali during WW-II (See Historic Documents: Pp.95 Moshe Yegar). The violent atrocities were found to have been committed by all sides, and both sides kept blaming on one another. On the one hand, the indigenous Arakanese are aware and -- always at alert -- that the Rohingya/Bengali migrant groups will seek a separate state (within Union) for themselves. There was a precedent as such, during 1948-1962, the Rohingya/Bengali groups nearly had succeeded in trying to set up a separate administrative state for Mayu Area (Buthidaung and Maung Daw districts). Therefore, the Arakanese nationalists are sensitive to any political move being made by the Rohingya/Bengali.

For the Rohingya/Bengali political leadership, the 1991 exodus had given the chance to energize their movement against the Burmese government's long-held oppressions. With the 1991 Rohingya refugee crisis, there were outpouring of sympathy for the oppressed by World's community. Therefore, the 1991 events had undoubtedly resurrected the old aspirations set out on by Jamiatul-Ulama. The Rohingya leaders, once again, had build-up their political campaign based on this popularity. Public promotion of political identity "Rohingya", along with the claims as the bona-fide natives of Arakan have, once again, resurfaced.

The third political force at play is the Burmese people and their political leadership -- both military and civilian. After 3 decades, the Burmese people have never heard the word "Rohingya" and they would not accept the claims the Rohingya is another indigenous group in Burma. With typical political laziness ( ), most Burmese will not investigate the accuracy of this claim, but rather happy to leave such group as the Bengali immigrants or, even worse, the illegal-immigrants from Bangladesh.

The pro-Rohingya groups' unchecked political campaign

We are here, once again, to be reminded that, in the 1990s, no one really knows about the origins of "Rohingya", nor has that been sure its an entirely invented word. Only very few knowledgeable Burmese might be able to point out the majority of Rohingya/Bengali are the descendants of immigrants after first Anglo-Burman war of 1824-1826. In any case, with the oppressive Burmese military leadership had been in charge those days, no Burmese would have given any bother to point out the inconsistencies about the claims made by Rohingya campaigners. Within this atmosphere, the political campaign conducted by pro-Rohingya activists to reassert the "Rohingya Identity" indeed have had an unchecked free-run, particularly in the global media circle.

The AFPFL Secretariat Communication to Jamiatul Ulama (PDF Downloads)
For Burmese military government, whenever there is disputing claims of indigenousness of Rohingya/Bengali, they will surely look for the reference from the note of AFPFL Secretariat (See Historic Documents). From this note which written by the founding fathers of independence, it has said that these people are immigrants and they are not entitled to a separate state. We, therefore, cannot expect the Burmese military to move an inch from that position . To Burmese military leaders, this note by AFPFL Secretariat has been treated probably as a code, i.e. the military code -- nothing to argue or to be compromised with it.

Self-check Action by Burmese military

Rohingya Issue by Professor Kei NEMOTO, 2005.
The Burmese military, never the less, seemed to have done a self-check about their own position in relation to Rohingyas. After a well known Japanese academic Kei Nemoto wrote some articles around 2003-2005 about Rohingya situation (see Documents), the Burmese military government seemed to look again into the Rohingya issues. In 2009, the Director of Burmese Historical Research Department had conducted his own research, using mainly Burmese archival records, and had written a report in Burmese language about the historical backgrounds and political movements of Rohingya/Bengali (see Documents). The Burmese military hadn't communicated very well about their thoughts and the findings about Rohingya to the global media. However, the military was sure to defend tooth and nails about their current position re: Rohingyas, since they cannot find any contradictions.

Burmese Military's Political Responses

When encountering with popular campaigns, the Burmese military indiscriminately uses violence on any political groups. Within Burma, those seek to promote 'Rohingya Identity' were targeted for persecution. Throughout 1990s, there were numerous intimidation, arrests and prohibition of pro-Rohingya advocates.

Externally, the military dig in its own position whenever encountering questions on the "Rohingya Identity". Burmese military hasn't known for a good political communication, and they will simply repeat single message such as, "Rohingya is not one of our 135 national races". Whilst that's true, there would never be how or why that has been the case.

Of course, unusual situation where the military cannot arrest pro-Rohingya activists, it's certain to use all other violent tactics at its disposal: this time to intimidate the entire Muslim populations in Burma. That has become the case for The 2012 Rakhine State Riots.

The 2012 Rakhine State Riots

Rohingya MPs Letter to Burmese Human Rights Commission (Feb-2012) in Burmese.
Notably, in early February 2012, the two Government's Rohingya MPs (U Shwe Maung and U Aung Zaw Win) had written a letter to the Burmese Government's Human Rights commission. In their letter, they were insisting that the "Rohingya" is one of indigenous races in Burma. These Rohingya MPs were, no doubt, being enboldened by the international sympathies that Rohingyas received in these years. In their letter (in Burmese, see Documents) the Rohingya MPs stated:

"(E) since successive government have said "Rohingya" as indigenous race and none of the governments specifically proclaimed the "Rohingya" is not an indigenous race, there is therefore legitimacy to such a claim."

The Burmese military, no doubt, would have been furious by the claims of these MPs; but the government cannot possibly arrest its own MPs! The Burmese military's response to this was predictable. The rise of Buddhist 969 anti-Muslim hate groups, along with May-June 2012 Rakhine Riots were indicative of the way in which Burmese military dealt with such unacceptable claims. Of course, these anti-Muslim hate campaigns do resonate with ordinary Burmese people. These Muslim hate groups in Burma still have significant momentum and public support as of today.

(On The Next Posting: Possible Causes for Rohingya/Bengali Flight of 2017)

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